olive groves, sea, and sky in southern Crete

Representatives of the top nine olive oil producing and consuming countries discussed their forecast for the 2020/21 olive growing season during an online conference that was organized and moderated by strategic analyst Juan Vilar of Spain. They analyzed various estimates for olive oil production, consumption, inventories, prices, and international trade.

As Vassilis Zampounis wrote for Olivenews.gr, the September 30 discussion ended with questions posed online from various countries and from attendees at the conference center in Jaen, Spain. Zampounis shared his Greek version of this summary of the discussion’s conclusions with Greek Liquid Gold.

World olive oil production is expected to reach 3,119,400 metric tons, broken down as follows:

  • Spain -- 1,633,000 (Jaen 630,000)
  • Italy -- 270,000
  • Greece -- 240,000
  • Turkey -- 180,000
  • Morocco -- 140,000
  • Tunisia -- 130,000
  • Portugal -- 120,000
  • Syria -- 80,000
  • Algeria 75,000
  • Argentina -- 28,000
  • Egypt -- 25,000
  • Chile -- 23,500
  • Australia -- 23,000
  • USA -- 22,500
  • Lebanon -- 17,000
  • Libya -- 17,000
  • Jordan -- 16,000
  • Israel -- 16,000
  • Palestine -- 14,000

(followed by a number of countries with smaller quantities)

The new production will be supplemented by stocks of 755,760 metric tons.

Olive oil consumption is expected at the same levels as its production, with the following distribution:

  • Europe -- 1,696,030
  • Americas -- 573,690
  • Asia -- 384,810
  • Africa -- 269,650
  • Oceania -- 83,000

Given this balance between production and consumption, it appears that the decrease in olive oil prices seen during the last 5 years will end this year.

Portugal, which begins its harvest relatively early and expects reduced production this year, will start with a higher producer price than last year, around 3.20 euros / kg.

Later, Spain will enter the dance at approximately 2.40-2.50 euros, which will slowly tend to slide down to lower prices of about 2.20 to 2.30 in January 2021-- still higher than the previous year.

Virgin and industrial grade olive oils are not expected to have the same good news about prices as extra virgin, despite the rather inexplicable recent upward price rally.

Clarification: The quantity of olive oil produced in Spain and Greece will depend on adequate rain in early autumn, because otherwise the oil / fruit yields will be poorer, making the final quality of olive oil lower.

Conference Participants

Mr. Vassilis Zampounis (olivenews.gr, Ελιά & Ελαιόλαδο [Olive & Olive Oil], Greece)
Dr. Ajmi Larbi (Olive Institute of Tunisia, Tunisia)
Mr. Alvaro Labella (General Manager of Olivogestao, Portugal)
Mr. Antonio Guerreiro (International Market Demand Analyst, Australia)
Dr. Gino Celletti (Olive Oil Marketing Expert, Italy)
Dr. Jorge Pereira (International Olive Industry Expert, Latin America)
Mr. Jorge Pena (CEO and President of Innoliva, United States of America)
Ms. Chania Szewczyk Chagas (Extra Virgin Olive Oil Taster and Olive Oil Sommelier, Brazil)

To watch the video of the event (in Spanish) click here

Event Sponsors

Agricultural Bank of Jaen
Olivarum Research Center
IFEJA (the company responsible for organizing Expoliva)

After his discussion of the online event, Vassilis Zampounis added that he is concerned that in recent years Greece has slipped into a state of introversion and isolation from the international decision-making and information centers in Brussels (European Commission), Madrid (International Olive Council), New York (North American Olive Oil Association), and elsewhere, at the same time that Greece’s “national products" (olive oil and table olives) are being globalized, and international competition is intensifying.

Thanks to olivenews.gr publisher Vassilis Zampounis for permission to publish this slightly adapted English version of his article. Thanks to JUAN VILAR CONSULTORES ESTRATEGICOS and Άξιον Εκδοτική (olivenews.gr) for sharing this data with Greek Liquid Gold; they retain copyright to the information in this article.

All businesses, organizations, and competitions involved with Greek olive oil, the Mediterranean diet, and/or agrotourism or food tourism in Greece, as well as anyone else interested in supporting Greeks working in these sectors, are invited to consider the advertising and sponsorship opportunities on the Greek Liquid Gold: Authentic Extra Virgin Olive Oil website. The only wide-ranging English-language site featuring news and information from the Greek olive oil world, it has reached readers in more than 200 countries around the globe.

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