olives dumped into a hopper at the mill at Anoskeli

George Economou, director of SEVITEL, and Panayiotis Karantonis, director of ESVITE (the two main Greek olive oil industry organizations) expect Greece to produce about 200,000 metric tons of olive oil this year, a low amount “due to adverse weather conditions and the presence of diseases” that also caused problems with olive oil quality “in some areas.”

The International Olive Council’s (IOC’s) latest Market Newsletter announced that Greece is expected to produce 260,000 metric tons of olive oil in the 2016/17 crop year, as opposed to 320,000 last year. However, Karantonis and Economou told Greek Liquid Gold that the IOC figure is based on a Greek Ministry of Agriculture estimate made a few months ago--and already out of date.

Olive oil yield, Karantonis and Economou report, is generally lower than usual this year. Average prices for new extra virgin olive oil are around 3.50 euros/kg in Messinia and Crete and 4.20 euros/kg in Laconia. Karantonis and Economou expect them to remain at these levels until January or early February, “when there will be a better picture of the reaction of the market to the new higher prices,” and also a clearer understanding “of the Spanish production, currently estimated slightly above 1.3 million tons.” 

There is "[m]ore uncertainty in the sector of ... Greek olive oil,” Vassilis Zambounis reports in his online Olive News publication, with a far less encouraging outlook than he anticipated earlier. Zambounis now expects only 175-185,000 metric tons of olive oil from Greece, depending on the oil yields from olive fruit in the mills. He describes “quality problems ... located mainly in Western Peloponnese (because of the Gloeosporium Olivarum), but also in scattered areas around Greece, either because of the Olive Fly (Dacus Oleae) or because of the extremely high temperatures in May and the extended drought."

Recent rains were helpful in Crete, but many industry watchers have low expectations for olive oil quality. Zambounis also cautions against excessive optimism about olive oil prices in Greece, which are currently somewhat higher than usual, because they are still much lower than (for example) in Italy, and “higher prices with reduced amounts” of olive oil will not yield producers higher income.

The general picture of the Greek olive oil world appears rather bleak this year, and many olive oil producers tell Greek Liquid Gold they are very disappointed by the results of their efforts in the face of forces beyond their control. However, other producers report that they remain optimistic, because their struggles against the olive fly and other natural enemies have been more successful.
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Thanks to Elawon for the photo of the green olives held in hands, and thanks to Anoskeli for allowing me to photograph some of the olives delivered to their mill!

For more details about expectations for the current harvest, see also 2016 Olive Oil Production in Greece: Producer Perspectives.

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