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Even careful research yields a range of estimates, but a summary of the predictions of several individuals and organizations with substantial experience in the olive oil industry suggests that worldwide olive oil production is not expected to decrease more than 7 to 11% in comparison to last year, and major price increases are not anticipated.

Several mainstream publications have recently published misleading statements and headlines about expectations for olive oil production and prices in the new harvest year. Some claims seem to imply an incomplete understanding of the situation regarding the duration of the harvest or crop year (October 1 through September 30), the sources of excellent extra virgin olive oil (not only Italy, but also Greece, where 80% of the olive oil produced is extra virgin, and other countries), and the range of well-researched estimates for the new crop year.

Agricultural economist, author, editor, and olive oil sector professional Vasilis Zampounis recently reported (in Greek) that extensive research using reliable sources has led him to expect similar olive oil production worldwide to last year, with little change in prices overall. He anticipates a 10% reduction in Greece in comparison with last year, an indeterminate reduction in Italy to a bit more than expected from Greece, an unclear situation in Syria, additional reductions in Tunisia and Morocco, a slight increase in Spain and Portugal, and a substantial increase in Turkey.
 
In its Market Newsletter for September 2016, the International Olive Council (IOC) reports, “According  to  official  data  provided  by  the  countries  and  estimates  produced  by  the  IOC  Executive Secretariat,  world  [olive oil] production  in  2016/17  is  expected  to  come  in  at  around  2,918,000 t [metric tons],  which  is approximately 7% lower than the figure for 2015/16,” although “it is still too early to judge the accuracy of these estimates.” The IOC predicts a 1% decrease in Spanish olive oil production compared to last year, a 30% reduction in Italian production, a 19% reduction in Greek production, a 29% decrease in Tunisia, a 1% increase in Portugal, and a 24% increase in Turkey.
 
Maria Krokou writes in the Greek online paper Olive News that statements in international publications acknowledge that olive oil production is expected to be reduced both in Europe and worldwide (about 8%) in the 2016/17 harvest season. However, olive oil prices are not expected to increase dramatically since some stock still remains from last year.

According to Mercacei, the Italian Institute for Services to the Agricultural and Food Markets (Ismea), in collaboration with the Consorzio Olivicolo Italiano (Unaprol), “estimates a decline in [worldwide olive oil] production by 9% compared to the 3 million tons recorded in the previous season.” They expect Italian production to decline by 37%, Greek production to decrease 20%, and Tunisian output to be reduced 21%, while they predict a a "‘substantial’ higher volume compared to 2015” for Spain and a 33% increase in Turkey.

In another article, Mercacei reports, “World production of olive oil will drop by 11% in the 2016/17 season, up to 2.9 million tons, as highlights the last update of the international forecast by GEA Iberia,” which “is based on data from more than 500 sources in 40 countries.” GEA Iberia forecasts a 27% decrease in Tunisian production, 19% less from Morocco, 43% less in Syria, a 29% reduction in Greece (vs. the 10-20% anticipated by others), and the most surprising 71% decline in Italy—a much more extreme decline than we see in other estimates, which expect just 30 to 37% less from Italy. Perhaps this is the number that set off the alarm bells seen in some articles. However, GEA Iberia is calling for a 2% increase in Spanish olive oil production and a 25% rise in Turkish production.
 
Even GEA Iberia, which forecasts the largest worldwide decrease in olive oil production for the coming harvest year, anticipates an increase from the world’s major olive oil producer, Spain, and does not expect more than an 11% decline worldwide, while others call for a 7 to 9% overall decrease, or even less. So there is no need to panic; there will still be excellent extra virgin olive oil in the world. For example, Vasilis Zampounis reports that the Greek island of Lesvos expects 100% more olive oil than last year, while the regions of Lasithi, Crete, and Messinia, Peloponnese, plus certain producers in other parts of Greece, expect a very good year as well. 



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